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Our Electoral College maps below lay out the best scenarios for him and Mr. Trump. In a Wall Street Journal battleground poll taken in March, Mr. Biden had only 37 percent job approval in the state. … orand The second and harder path for Mr. Trump would be if he carried only one Southern swing state – most likely North Carolina. By carrying these states, Mr. Biden has several paths to 270, but the first three scenarios are his most viable. Scenario 4 They involve Mr. Biden winning Georgia and Arizona … They involve Mr. Biden winningand Scenario 5 … or Michigan and Georgia.

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☆ Trump’s Carter Problems vs. Biden’s Reagan Possibilities - The New York Times
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-11 | by ( Doug Sosnik | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The low approval rating and various political headwinds for President Biden have invited comparisons with another first-term Democratic president, Jimmy Carter, and the challenges he faced running for re-election in 1980. Many Republicans are thinking about his defeat at the hands of Ronald Reagan, bullish that Donald Trump also has what it takes to oust a flagging incumbent. The more significant comparisons could be between Mr. Trump and Mr. Carter and their difficulty in winning over voters and, even more, between Mr. Biden and Mr. Reagan and their attempts to address doubts about their age — which are flaring again for Mr. Biden. But what became increasingly clear throughout 1980 was that there was a ceiling on voter support for Mr. Carter. Mr. Carter’s job approval at the end of March was close to his final 41 percent share of the vote in November.

Persons: Biden, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, bullish, Donald Trump, Trump, Carter, Reagan, Biden’s, Carter’s Organizations: Democratic, Mr

☆ One year out, here’s what we know about how the presidential race will look on Labor Day 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-04 | by ( Ronald Brownstein | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +15 min

CNN —Much remains unknown of course about the presidential general election whose traditional kick-off will come one year from today on Labor Day, 2024. Twenty states have likewise voted for the GOP presidential nominee in all four of those contests. That means 40 of the 50 states, or 80%, have voted the same way in four consecutive presidential elections. In the presidential elections of 2012, 2016 and 2020, though, the states where the margin of victory landed within four points of the national vote total dwindled. Eventually a Democratic choice to write off Florida and Ohio could provide a tactical benefit for the GOP presidential nominee.

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